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AI, Education, and the Future of Skills: Rethinking University Value in the Age of Generative AI

Executive Summary

Recent research by Dr. Glen Crust and Emeritus Prof Brian Chalkley has revealed something quite concerning for higher education: the performance gap between university graduates and bright school leavers who know how to use ChatGPT is narrowing across 33 subjects and 35 occupational skills. With AI developing at such a rapid pace, universities need to rethink their purpose before the class of 2028 faces a completely different job landscape. This report offers practical tools for students, educators, and policymakers to adapt and succeed.

The AI Skills Revolution

When ChatGPT appeared in late 2022, few people could have predicted how quickly it would disrupt traditional education pathways. The study by Crust and Chalkley reveals that in 2024, school leavers who’ve become comfortable with generative AI tools can reach skill levels that come remarkably close to those of recent graduates in many areas.

The research examined performance across 35 key occupational skills from the ONET framework, particularly focusing on the analytical, communication, and problem-solving abilities that employers prize most. The study shows that ChatGPT-4 can handle all 35 skills in the ONET occupational database, indicating that skilled ChatGPT users can work effectively across a wide range of occupations.

Who Benefits, Who Struggles?

According to the research, school leavers from less privileged backgrounds who can’t afford university have the most to gain from AI skill enhancement, potentially accessing careers that were previously out of reach. The study points out that the proportion of UK 20-34-year-olds living with their parents increased from 24% in 1996 to 32% in 2019, underlining the financial pressures young people face when making education choices.

Meanwhile, universities that stick with traditional teaching methods face real challenges as the skill advantage usually linked with degrees starts to diminish.

When and Where Are Changes Happening?

The impact varies significantly across different fields. The analysis shows that subjects that rely heavily on standardized knowledge demonstrate the smallest gap between AI-enhanced school leavers and university graduates. The research ranked subjects by total skill gain, with business administration, basic programming, and introductory economics among those showing smaller performance differences.

Fields that require hands-on lab work or complex interpersonal skills still show stronger advantages for graduates, though even these areas aren’t completely protected from AI’s influence.

Geographically, AI-enhanced learning isn’t spreading uniformly, with urban areas and better-resourced schools adopting these tools more rapidly. This is creating a fresh type of digital divide that policymakers must address.

Why This Matters: The 2028 Graduate Outlook

The Crust and Chalkley study presents O*NET Level 5 performance benchmarks across all 35 skills for students starting university in 2025. Importantly, these students will graduate in 2028 when AI will probably be far more advanced, potentially making traditional learning approaches obsolete.

The research indicates that if a reasonably talented school leaver can perform all 35 O*NET skills at Level 5, then the graduate salary premium linked with degrees in mechanical engineering and many other subjects will be considerably reduced.

How Universities Can Respond

The report offers a practical framework for universities to develop graduate skills profiles using Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes from the HESA Graduate Outcomes survey. The methodology draws on data from 381,945 graduates who provided useful responses to the 2021/22 survey cycle, gathered around 15 months after they completed higher education.

This approach helps identify skill gaps that limit graduates’ job prospects and opportunities to differentiate programs. The research suggests universities can enhance career prospects through:

1. Pre-entry information on subject pages and Open Day presentations
2. Gap analysis for skills-focused curriculum development
3. Classroom-based and tutorial student career development
4. Expanding the ‘occupational reach’ of degree programmes

Progressive institutions are implementing AI-native curricula that emphasize:

• Capabilities focused on using AI tools rather than memorizing information
• Distinctly human abilities that resist automation
• Learning through real-world projects
• Complex ethical reasoning and judgment
• Building diverse skill portfolios rather than subject-specific expertise

Skills England: Policy Implications

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s July 2024 commitment to reform the UK skills system comes at a crucial moment. The research demonstrates that US occupational skills frameworks, especially O*NET, are more developed than their UK equivalents.

The study proposes a worker-centered approach to generating live occupational skills data that:

• Assesses the skills outcomes of higher education using current HESA Graduate Outcomes (GO) survey data
• Monitors how AI enhances worker performance in real-time
• Charts how jobs and activities develop
• Establishes feedback loops between educators and employers

The Path Forward: AI-Native Education

The research’s Appendix C provides practical guidance for students and families creating AI-enhanced learning plans. Rather than avoiding AI tools, the study supports “AI-native” learners who:

1. Develop sophisticated AI collaboration techniques
2. Focus on meta-cognitive skills and judgment formation
3. Build personalized learning journeys using AI
4. Create portfolios demonstrating human-AI collaborative work
5. Pursue experiences that develop automation-resistant skills

The study emphasizes that interviewers are more likely to ask questions such as: “Tell me about a time when you used generative AI to transform your performance and rapidly solve a challenging problem in a field with which you were completely unfamiliar.”

Conclusion: Reimagining Educational Value

The Crust and Chalkley research questions fundamental assumptions about the purpose of higher education. Universities that cling to traditional knowledge-transmission models face declining relevance as AI makes expertise more accessible. Success in the AI age will go to those who combine uniquely human talents with the ability to work effectively with AI.

For students and families, university decisions now must consider AI proficiency and its impact on skill development. For policymakers, especially Skills England, creating responsive systems that track rapidly changing skill requirements in real-time has become more pressing than ever.

The gap between AI-enhanced school leavers and university graduates will likely keep narrowing. The question isn’t whether universities will adapt, but which ones will move fast enough to remain relevant in an AI-transformed world.

Citation

Crust, G., & Chalkley, B. (2024). University or AI? ChatGPT, Skills, and Employability. ResearchGate. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34630.69447. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/385038454_University_or_AI_ChatGPT_Skills_and_Employability